No Ordinary Fool

On film, Oliver Hardy would typically berate the gormless Stan Laurel for being the cause of their latest mishap. He would come across as being a large bully who easily dominated his diminutive sidekick. Away from the cameras, though, Hardy was an amiable pussycat, happiest on the golf course, and, it was Laurel, in fact, who was the brains and heart of the operation.

Increasingly, Brian Cowen seems like Oliver Hardy. He may be nicknamed “Biffo” and he may enjoy a reputation for being able to tear a clueless Opposition politician to shreds during a debate. However, since being appointed as Taoiseach during the summer, his credibility has taken a serious and sustained hammering.

Firstly, he presided over the defeat of the Lisbon Treaty referendum, having run a lukewarm campaign. Secondly, inflation has surged this year, leaving the renegotiation of the national agreement on pay in tatters. Thirdly, the public accounts are in disarray, with a deficit of over 12 billion euro expected by the end of this year alone! Finally, the Irish banks have needed a 500 billion euro State guarantee package to avert the imminent risk of a systemic collapse.

Now, it may seem harsh to blame a newly appointed Taoiseach for all of these matters, were it not for the fact that Brian Cowen had been the Minister for Finance until earlier this year! Whilst in the Department of Finance, for example, he was the chief architect of four Budgets. Consequently, he must bear a clear amount of responsiblity for the current state of the economy.

Speaking of Budgets, this, of course, brings us to today and the fact that the 2009 Budget has turned into a political debacle.

You can fret over the language used if needs be, but there can surely be no denying that the Government has succumbed to public pressure on two matters that they should never have found themselves in a pickle over in the first place. It is hard to imagine what possessed the Government when they determined that the application of a universal 1% levy on all wage-earners was not going to be seen as unfairly hurting the earning poor of this country. Moreover, whatever the problems with the current arrangement, to suddenly yank the medical card rug out from under the feet of old-aged pensioners was the act of people with limited political sensibilities.

Now, having so clearly bowed to public pressure on some aspects of the Budget, the Government risks being attacked on all sides with respect to other parts of it. This includes the increase in class sizes in schools, the parking spot levy, the fact that the income levy still affects many people earning just above the minimum wage level, etc.

To paraphrase Oliver Hardy, it is another fine mess that he has gotten us all into!

So what options does Brian Cowen have now to try and reassert his authority?

1. Do Nothing

It has always seemed easier to push treacle up a sand dune than to part a Fianna Fail minister from his Mercedes. Hence, they will surely be sorely tempted to try and ride out this storm too. However, has the tide now turned on voters’ patience with such arrogance?

Moreover, with the different interest groups increasingly becoming emboldened by the Government’s displays of frailness, can Brian Cowen afford to leave materially weakened people in key roles, as his government works through the next sets of hard decisions to be made – the reform of the public sector, the need to sew up a new national pay agreement, the position of Ireland regarding the Lisbon Treaty, etc?

2. Demand Resignations and Reshuffle the Cabinet

The Taoiseach could call on either or both the Minister for Finance and the Minister for Health to resign. On the positive side, it acknowledges that the Government made a mess of the Budget, but that it is equally drawing a line under the matter with this blood-letting

At the same time, there would not seem to be a natural successor to Brian Lenihan for the Finance role. If there had of been, such a person would probably have been given the job in the first place!

Equally, the Taoiseach will be nervous of creating new enemies in his camp at a time when Fianna Fail backbenchers are proving rowdy to deal with.

3. Call a General Election

Of course, this is the nuclear option, as the best outcome that Brian Cowen could reasonably hope for right now would be to return as Taoiseach of a government that includes a strong junior coalition partner in Labour. Equally, he could simply just end up on the Opposition parties, facing a leadership challenge.

It is arguably the most honourable option, though, as it allows a proper national debate to take place as to what the country needs to do. The mandate that the current Government has is looking increasingly sketchy and it is led by a man who was appointed to the job without so much as a party leadership debate, never mind asking the public what they thought.

Events, My Dear Boy, Events

Brian Cowen’s predecessor led a charmed existence it would seem. Even if his depature was a great deal less dignified than he would have hoped for, the recent events have not happened on Bertie Ahern’s watch either. Instead, it is the current Taoiseach who must find a way out of the large hole that, admittedly, he helped to dig for himself.

As much as it pains me to say so, I would consider a snap general election to be too painful, divisive and, bitter a process to have to go through at a time when the economy is taking quite a pounding and the banks are being held together with Government-issued sticky tape.

Yet, if there is to be no such election, then the Taoiseach must now show that he is a strong and capable leader. Whether it is fair or not to do so, he must begin by asking Brian Lenihan to resign as Minister for Finance. Of course, there will be some very vocal Opposition criticism for doing so barely months after appointing the man in the first place. However, if he has a mind to, the Taoiseach can deal with such protests in his usual brusque manner, whilst demanding that the Government pour all of its efforts now into turning the economy around and being bold when called upon to do so.

I am aware that there is a degree of political naivety to the above proposal, but surely a purposeful and combative Brian Cowen is better than one who ends up a political lame duck whilst the country is let slide into the mire? Right now, we seem to go from one major problem to the next, with little by way of satisfactory solutions being applied, and confidence in our country’s leadership is beginning to ebb away quite quickly.

In other words, Brian Cowen needs to decide if this economic downturn will be his Falkland’s moment or his Waterloo. If it is to be the latter, then please go and go quickly. If it is to be the former, then stop coughing up easy possession and start putting some scores on the board.